RISKS & CRISES IN THE NEWS - February 1, 2026
Andre Vermette 
RISKS & CRISES IN THE NEWS
Date: February 1, 2026
Published by: International Association of Risk and Crisis Communications (IARCC)
This week highlighted a growing disconnect between the scale of real-world disruption and the muted institutional, political, and market responses to it. Across strategic, operational, financial, compliance, and reputational domains, risks are not erupting in isolation. They are accumulating, normalizing, and increasingly being absorbed without the level of scrutiny or preparedness such conditions historically demanded.
Strategic Risk
Issue
Geopolitical escalation is no longer theoretical. Early January saw U.S. forces seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an extraordinary intervention that revived long-dormant doctrines of hemispheric dominance.
Despite the gravity of the move, international reaction was restrained and financial markets barely registered the event, underscoring how shock thresholds have shifted. At the same time, sustained U.S. pressure tied to Greenland and tariff threats continued to strain alliance cohesion.
European leaders meeting around Davos coordinated unusually explicit resistance to U.S. signaling, marking a subtle but important recalibration within the transatlantic relationship.
What this means
Strategic risk is moving from episodic crisis toward persistent instability. Leaders should plan for abrupt geopolitical moves delivered as signals rather than fully articulated strategies, with limited warning and compressed decision windows.
Operational Risk
Issue
Operational vulnerabilities this week were driven less by sudden failures than by accumulated system stress.
A clear example is Starbucks, which disclosed ongoing supply-chain disruptions linked to AI-driven inventory glitches, fragmented suppliers, and fulfillment breakdowns.
The case illustrates how automation, when layered onto already complex vendor ecosystems, can magnify rather than reduce operational risk.
In parallel, extreme cold and heavy snowfall across Canada exposed recurring weaknesses in infrastructure resilience, emergency coordination, and crisis communications, particularly during prolonged weather events rather than short-duration shocks.
What this means
Operational resilience now depends as much on third-party governance and system integration as on internal controls. Crisis plans that stop at the organizational boundary are no longer sufficient.
Financial Risk
Issue
Financial markets continue to display what analysts increasingly describe as “risk anhedonia,” a dulled response to events that once triggered sharp repricing.
January delivered multiple potential shock events, including the Maduro seizure, renewed tariff threats linked to Greenland, and revelations that Jerome Powell was subject to a Justice Department investigation that raised concerns about U.S. central-bank independence.
Yet equity and currency markets largely held steady. Strong 2025 economic performance, investor fatigue, and the belief that political escalation will be followed by tactical retreat appear to be suppressing volatility.
The danger lies not in calm, but in volatility being stored rather than released.
What this means
Market stability should not be mistaken for risk absorption. Abrupt repricing remains likely if credibility breaks or multiple stressors align.
Compliance Risk
Issue
Compliance pressure continues to intensify as regulatory expectations expand faster than institutional capacity.
In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission advanced age-verification and child-protection discussions while states such as California moved aggressively to fine unregistered data brokers, with penalties scaling rapidly based on database size.
In Asia, Hong Kong began enforcing a new cybersecurity regime for critical-infrastructure operators, imposing 12-hour incident-reporting windows, mandatory audits, and personal accountability for senior management.
Across jurisdictions, compliance teams face rising expectations amid flat or shrinking resources.
What this means
Compliance has become a governance risk.
Under-resourced compliance functions are no longer a back-office issue but a leading indicator of future crises.
Reputational Risk
Issue
Reputational damage this week was driven less by the incidents themselves than by credibility gaps in official responses.
In the United States, multiple cases involving federal law-enforcement actions quickly escalated after video evidence and eyewitness accounts undercut initial statements, accelerating public backlash before investigations were fully underway.
Once again, delays, defensiveness, and over-confident narratives compounded reputational harm, particularly in highly polarized information environments.
What this means
In 2026, reputational risk is defined by speed.
When facts emerge faster than institutions adapt their messaging, trust erodes almost immediately.
Closing Observation
This week did not produce a single defining crisis. Instead, it reinforced a more troubling pattern: accumulation.
Strategic norms are eroding, operational systems are strained, financial markets are desensitized, compliance capacity is thinning, and public trust remains brittle.
The leadership risk is no longer failing to anticipate the next shock. It is failing to recognize that many organizations are already operating inside one.
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Categories: : RISKS/CRISES IN THE NEWS WEEKLY
