RISKS & CRISES IN THE NEWS - December 28
Andre Vermette 
Risks & Crises in the News
Date: December 27, 2025
Published by: International Association of Risk and Crisis Communications (IARCC)
The International Association of Risk and Crisis Communications monitors and reports on developments shaping business continuity, resilience, and trust. Each week, we examine risks across strategic, operational, financial, compliance and reputational domains.
This past week reinforced a familiar year-end illusion: surface calm masking accumulating structural risk. Across geopolitics, markets, operations, regulation, and public trust, developments point to 2026 opening not with clarity, but with heightened exposure where systems are assumed to “just work.”
Strategic Risk
Issue
Holiday diplomacy delivered optics but little resolution. High-profile meetings involving Ukraine, Western leaders, and allied partners generated reassuring headlines, yet underlying positions remain hardened. Military aid continues, peace frameworks remain undefined, and timelines for de-escalation are increasingly ambiguous.
For governments and global organizations, the risk is not escalation alone, but false confidence—mistaking engagement for progress. Strategic ambiguity persists across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and U.S.–China relations, raising the likelihood of miscalculation early in 2026.
Mitigation Strategy
Governments and multilateral bodies are maintaining diplomatic engagement while sustaining military and economic support mechanisms. Strategic planning teams are increasingly modeling extended instability scenarios rather than near-term resolution outcomes.
Communications Strategy
Public messaging emphasizes continuity, alliance cohesion, and ongoing dialogue. However, leaders are beginning to temper expectations by framing diplomacy as risk management rather than imminent conflict resolution.
What’s Next
Monitor whether early-2026 diplomatic activity produces substantive shifts in negotiating positions or remains largely symbolic. Watch for miscalculation risk where engagement is mistaken for convergence.
Operational Risk
Issue
This week highlighted how operational resilience remains overstretched heading into the new year. Aviation and logistics bottlenecks, strained public services, and border operations continue to operate with minimal slack.
New U.S. border biometric rules requiring facial capture on entry and exit underscore a broader pattern: operational changes are being implemented faster than public understanding or trust can keep pace.
Mitigation Strategy
Agencies and operators are accelerating deployment of technology upgrades while adjusting staffing and contingency planning. Some organizations are revisiting process design to reduce friction at points of human interaction.
Communications Strategy
Authorities are providing limited advance notice and technical explanations, but public-facing communication remains uneven. Where messaging lags implementation, confusion and resistance increase.
What’s Next
Expect heightened friction in travel, border, and public-service environments in early 2026. Monitor whether communication strategies evolve to match the pace of operational change.
Financial Risk
Issue
Markets ended the year on a relatively upbeat note, but optimism masks growing tension beneath the surface. AI-driven investment remains debt-heavy, consumer affordability pressures persist, and currency and commodity volatility continue to signal fragility.
Mitigation Strategy
Investors and financial institutions are selectively reducing exposure to highly leveraged growth narratives while stress-testing portfolios against valuation and liquidity shocks.
Communications Strategy
Market commentary balances optimism with caution, emphasizing long-term growth potential while warning that confidence remains sentiment-driven rather than cash-flow anchored.
What’s Next
Watch for abrupt repricing if confidence shifts or earnings fail to justify valuations. Early 2026 may expose gaps between narrative-driven growth and financial fundamentals.
Compliance Risk
Issue
Regulatory reach continued to widen across data governance, border controls, sustainability reporting, and corporate accountability. Enforcement capacity and institutional readiness, however, remain uneven.
Mitigation Strategy
Organizations are expanding compliance teams, increasing external advisory support, and prioritizing jurisdictions with the most stringent disclosure and enforcement regimes.
Communications Strategy
Firms are signaling commitment to compliance while requesting clearer guidance and transition periods. Regulators emphasize accountability but offer limited harmonization.
What’s Next
Expect rising exposure not from intentional non-compliance, but from misinterpretation and execution gaps as rules evolve faster than organizational capacity.
Reputational Risk
Issue
Public trust remains brittle. This week illustrated how quickly narratives shift when transparency lags behind action, particularly around data use, surveillance, affordability pressures, and perceived elite insulation from consequences.
Mitigation Strategy
Organizations are reassessing stakeholder engagement, increasing disclosure, and emphasizing accountability frameworks to address cumulative frustration rather than isolated incidents.
Communications Strategy
Effective responses focus on clarity, fairness, and acknowledgment of public concern. Defensive or delayed messaging continues to amplify backlash.
What’s Next
Monitor sentiment-driven risks where reputational damage builds quietly and erupts rapidly, particularly around fairness, cost pressures, and accountability.
Wrap-Up:
The dominant risk signal this week is not crisis—but compression. Strategic ambiguity, operational strain, financial leverage, regulatory expansion, and trust erosion are converging faster than institutions are adapting.
The transition from 2025 to 2026 is less a reset than a stress test.
Communications Takeaway:
Challenge assumptions, communicate changes before implementation, stress-test narratives against reality, and address trust erosion early—before frustration becomes backlash.
Need specialized insight on a particular industry, risk type, or geography?
Contact IARCC to request tailored analysis, sector briefings, or strategic support for risk communications planning.
Categories: : RISKS/CRISES IN THE NEWS WEEKLY
